I would as a first point consider that your analysis could be flawed, because that number of mutations seems very low. Your sequencing needs sufficient coverage to detect variants, and you might have missed a lot.
So question 1 back to you: How high is your coverage, and was it re-sequencing, how was the variant calling carried out?
Question 2: what do you mean by a "long period of time", please specify the period of time since separation (I mean in years, days, hours, whatever)
If the data was real, that could mean one of few things:
- The mutation rate is low or
- the proportion of neutral to constrained sites is small
- the generation time is very long
- the populations are not as 'cleanly separated' as you might think, they could mix.
Just a very naive calculation, which doesn't claim to be precise or correct at all.
If most changes seen during molecular evolution are neutral, then fixations in a population will accumulate at a clock-rate that is equal to the rate of neutral mutations in an individual.
Say the avarage mutation rate is 1E-8 per base per generation (that's about the value which is often used), let the genome size be 3 Mbase, then the expected value of mutations per generation is 1E-8 * p * 3E6 ~ p * 0.03 (p: estimated proportion of neutral/constrained sites). At that rate it would take only like 30/p*0.03 ~ 1000/p generations to generate these mutations. Given I set p to only 10%-50% (range depending on estimate of the constrained (coding+promoter+RNA vs. non-constrained), it would take between 2000-10000 generations to get this number of mutations.
I'm never convinced that the term "SNP" makes much sense in the context of bacterial genomes. Bacterial genomes alter with every round of replication - are there really "reference genomes" in the same sense as eukaryotes? Just a thought.
Neil, I think Sanjukta should have used the more neutral term variant/mutation or base substitution. I agree that the term SNP doesn't seem to fit here.
I cleaned this up, I hope it is better now.