Forum:What'S Your Estimate For The Yearly Demand Of Whole Human Genome Sequencing?

Question

[support]

What's your estimate for the yearly demand of Whole Human Genome Sequencing?

The advent of the HiSeq X Ten makes sequencing genomes faster and cheaper.

The “$1K”, 30X Whole Human Genome is now available for $1,400 ($1,550 with library prep):

See: https://genohub.com/shop-by-next-gen-sequencing-technology/#query=e304abac02105b87079fd1a19e70b9ed

Answer 1

[Istvan Albert]

Well here is a back-of-the-envelope estimate.

Let's assume that every individual with a serious disease will get their genome sequenced at least once a year. The cancer prevalence in the US is about 4% let's round this up to 5% to include all other diseases where sequencing may be applicable. Now let's factor in that not every such candidate could get sequenced. Let's say one in ten does: 0.5%

Then in the US we are looking at 1.5 million genomes that would need to be sequenced.

Answer 2

[Gergana Vandova]

It seems to me that with the new Illumina technology HiSeq X Ten, the number of whole genome sequences per year is going to increase dramatically. Illumina states that each HiSeq X Ten machine will be able to sequence 18 000 human genomes per year. But the bottleneck is that the cost of the HiSeq X Ten will be at least $10 million, which would be affordable only to the big players. So although the actual sequencing cost for a single human genome will be around $1K, very few labs would be able to afford buying the sequencers.

“It's a good deal if you can play in this game,” says Chad Nusbaum, co-director of the sequencing program at The Broad Institute of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard in Cambridge, Massachusetts, one of the world's sequencing heavyweights and one of the three customers already signed up for the HiSeq X Ten. “It's like the high-stakes poker table: if you're playing $200 a chip, people who can't afford those chips don't care.”(ref)

So perhaps we could multiply this number by only several fold.

Answer 3

[support]

In 2015 yield from HiSeq X Ten facilities alone (assuming no one else purchased a machine) would be ~150,000 genomes. Optimistically doubling that to account for new HiSeq X Ten purchases between now and 2015 would give an estimate of ~300,000 genomes in 2015, and that’s only on the HiSeq X Ten. Assuming this year there will already be 60,000 30x (non-HiSeq X Ten) genomes sequenced, 20% growth brings this figure closer to ~400,000 genomes in 2015. While this figure certainly does not account for delays, instrument break downs, data analysis, storage and library prep bottlenecks, it represents optimistic potential for 2015.

http://blog.genohub.com/yearly-demand-for-whole-human-genome-sequencing-400k-new-genomes-in-2015/

Answer 4

[support]

I'm interested in why you think getting your genome sequenced once / year would be necessary. Are you thinking in terms of anticipation of finding new drug targets, or technology becoming better? Transcriptome-seq might be interesting every year.

-- Genohub

[Istvan Albert]

I was thinking in terms of both transcriptome sequencing but also cancer related somatic mutations and alterations.

[support]

I guess each tumor / tumor cell can have it's "own genome", then there is the epigenome.

• Genohub

Answer 5

[support]

While the HiSeq X Ten at a price tag of $10M may only be affordable to a few big players, our focus at Genohub is to solve this problem by making it easy for researchers interested in next generation sequencing services to access all the latest sequencing technology, including the HiSeq X Ten: https://genohub.com/shop-by-next-gen-sequencing-technology/#query=e304abac02105b87079fd1a19e70b9ed. Anyone can search for, find and order sequencing, library prep and analysis services right on Genohub.com, making owning the instruments not a requirement for getting access to good quality data.